**Randizzle's** Week 11 NCAAF **(63-19-4)(77%)(+92.1 Units)**

[Randizzle14]

Hello Everyone....Another Great Week last week achieving a Sweep at 5-0-1. The lines will be out within the next hour, and I should have my plays/leans out by Midnight CST. Every week I emphasize that the "law of averages" has to atleast slow me down a little. So again I will say, whatever I produce this week will not compare to last week. To all new comers to my thread understand that NOTHING is GUARANTEED and to never have too much confidence in a play. So practice PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT and enjoy what we have made already this season. I have noticed that week to week, the lines have gotten sharper and more difficult to breakdown. I will attempt to only play 5-7 games again this week. Good Luck to All of you and let's finish the regular season off strong. :toast:

Week by Week Breakdown:

Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) .........................5-1-0
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)


Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ..................5-1-1
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)


Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units) ................5-0-0
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)

Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units) .................13-5-1
Opinions: 8-2-1

Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units) ................10-3-0
Opinions: 3-0-0

Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ...................4-3-0
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)

Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units) ..................5-5-0
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)

Week 9:
Premium Play:0-0-0
Regular Plays: 11-1-0 (+19.6 Units) ..............11-1-0

Week 10:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Plays: 5-0-1 (+13 Units).....................5-0-1

OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 47-16-3 (75%) (+71.4 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-1 (85%)

Season YTD= 63-19-4 (76.8%) (+92.1 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Early Plays/Leans

Early Plays/Leans
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Plays:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> (-7) (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Oregon St</st1:address></st1:Street>.</st1:address></st1:Street> (-7) (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
<o></o>
<o></o>
Leans:<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><o>Minnesota (-7)</o></st1:City></st1lace>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on"><o></o>Houston</st1:City></st1lace> (-14) <o></o>
Rice (-9.5) <o></o>
Duke (-4.5)<o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1lace></st1:State> (-25)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Wake</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Forest</st1laceType></st1lace> (-3.5)<o></o>
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Arkansas St</st1:address></st1:Street>.</st1:address></st1:Street> (-3)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S. Carolina</st1lace> (-10)<o></o>

Will have write-ups later this week. Also, will end up adding 3-4 plays this week.

GL, Dizz :toast:
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[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Game

Tuesday Game
--------------
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (4 - 4)
Week 11 Tuesday, 11/4/2008 7:30 PM

Buffalo is coming into this game off back to back wins. Miami is coming off a huge loss against a Kent St. team that they were favored over. In my opinion, Miami (OH) has given up this season. They now sit at 2-6 on the season with one of thos wins coming from a D1-aa school. Buffalo is looking to get above .500 here in front of a Home Crowd. Again, my favorite stat too look at comes into play again tonight. Turnovers!! Miami (OH) has 18 Giveaways and just 10 Takeaways this season. That's nearly a 2to1 negative ratio. On the other side, Buffalo has just 9 Giveaways and has managed to achieve 18 Takeaways this season. That's a 2to1 positive ratio. I believe this will result in Buffalo having atleast 2 more possessions than than Miami (OH).

Trends:
MIAMI OHIO is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons.

Line Movement Trends: (For those of you who believe in Line movement)

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Opening Line = -8, Closing Line = -9</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the home favorite has covered the spread 53 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 35 times.</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 13 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 3 times.
Edge against the spread=BUFFALO
</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">
Team Trends Pertaining to Current Line:

Buffalo Bulls are 9-3-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 7-15-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 0-5-0 ATS After 1 Overs (7 -> 9.5)

MY POWER RANKINGS:
Buffalo: 85th
Miami (OH): 117th

My Effiency Ratings:
Buffalo: 84th
Miami (OH): 118th

</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">
I am Taking Buffalo Bulls -7 (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] :toast:

GL, Dizz
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Update

Quote:
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt2 style="BORDER-RIGHT: 1px inset; BORDER-TOP: 1px inset; BORDER-LEFT: 1px inset; BORDER-BOTTOM: 1px inset">Originally Posted by Randizzle14
Tuesday Game
--------------
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (4 - 4)
Week 11 Tuesday, 11/4/2008 7:30 PM

Buffalo is coming into this game off back to back wins. Miami is coming off a huge loss against a Kent St. team that they were favored over. In my opinion, Miami (OH) has given up this season. They now sit at 2-6 on the season with one of thos wins coming from a D1-aa school. Buffalo is looking to get above .500 here in front of a Home Crowd. Again, my favorite stat too look at comes into play again tonight. Turnovers!! Miami (OH) has 18 Giveaways and just 10 Takeaways this season. That's nearly a 2to1 negative ratio. On the other side, Buffalo has just 9 Giveaways and has managed to achieve 18 Takeaways this season. That's a 2to1 positive ratio. I believe this will result in Buffalo having atleast 2 more possessions than than Miami (OH).

Trends:
MIAMI OHIO is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons.

Line Movement Trends: (For those of you who believe in Line movement)

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=matchupHeader>Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:</TD></TR><TR><TD class=matchupSubHeader>Opening Line = -8, Closing Line = -9</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Since 1992, the home favorite has covered the spread 53 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 35 times.</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 13 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 3 times.
Edge against the spread=BUFFALO

</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">
Team Trends Pertaining to Current Line:

Buffalo Bulls are 9-3-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 7-15-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 0-5-0 ATS After 1 Overs (7 -> 9.5)

MY POWER RANKINGS:
Buffalo: 85th
Miami (OH): 117th

My Effiency Ratings:
Buffalo: 84th
Miami (OH): 118th


</TD></TR><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">
I am Taking Buffalo Bulls -7 (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] :toast:

GL, Dizz


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
(WINNER) +2 Units!! :toast:

Another Great start to the week.....hoping to keep up this 17-1-0 run. I am confident in my capping, but this is just getting out of hand. Hope to stay on the positive side this weekend. Some sharp lines this week.

Remember, MONEY MANAGEMENT.......GL, Dizz
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[TTinCO]

Guys, this forum is for his picks ONLY. Please keep all questions & commentary in the College foots room.

Thanks

 

[Randizzle14]

Sorry...forgot to paste this

Plays:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Buffalo</st1lace></st1:City> (-7) (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Oregon St</st1:address></st1:Street>.</st1:address></st1:Street> (-7) (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
<o></o>Minnesota (-7) (-120) (3 Units)*

*If drops to -7 (-110) I will add a Unit.

<o></o>
Leans:<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Houston</st1:City></st1lace> (-14) Still looking at a few angles.
Rice (-9.5) Down to -9...if value increases I will pull trigger.
Duke (-4.5) <o></o>
<st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Oklahoma</st1lace></st1:State> (-25) My favorite team (don't like playing ON or Against them)
<st1lace w:st="on"><st1laceName w:st="on">Wake</st1laceName> <st1laceType w:st="on">Forest</st1laceType></st1lace> (-3.5) Hoping it drops to -3<o></o>
<st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Arkansas St</st1:address></st1:Street>.</st1:address></st1:Street> (-3)<o></o>
<st1lace w:st="on">S. Carolina</st1lace> (-10)

<o>:toast:</o>
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[Randizzle14]

Game 2

Oregon St. -7 (3 Units)

 

[RobFunk]

Randizzle, write ups and commentary are not allowed in the tracker fourm.

Just the plays and your record.

Thanks, ROB